– 2.5:1: We use this ratio for our baseline. It represents the midlevel support ratios experienced in OIF and OEF.

– 3.5:1: This represents the high-end bound of OIF and OEF support.

We chose the 2.5:1 support ratio for our baseline estimate to support WMD-E operations in the DPRK, and show the parametric variants of ratios higher or lower than this number.

Question 4

– Sensitivity of Force Requirements to Operational Environments and Support Ratios

The ground force requirements are presented as a function of the operating environment (Uncertain or Hostile, and level of threat) and the assumed support ratio (low, midlevel, or high), broken out by the different elements of the WMD-E mission force.

Ground force requirements for WMD-E operations in our illustrative DPRK case are presented in Figure 1.2.

Estimated forces needed for WMD-E operations could be…

Example:• 73,000 troops for an Uncertain environment – with a lower bound of 52,000 if significant contractor logistics support can be employed and an upper bound of 94,000 if all support must be provided by the U.S. military • 148,000 for an Uncertain/High Threat environment – with a lower bound of 113,000 with more contractor logistics support and an upper bound of 182,000 with all U.S. military support.

Since we think that the environment is likely to be Hostile and that theintermediate level of support will be needed in the DPRK, our best estimate is a requirement for 188,000 U.S. ground troops.

That estimate could decrease to 148,000 if the risk of attack from DPRKmilitary remnants decreases.

It could increase to 273,000 if the environment worsens to become High Threat. It is also useful to recall that these estimates are for the WMD-E mission only – they do not include force requirements for other missions, such as humanitarian assistance.

These different security levels pertain to the disposition of the DPRK security forces and any insurgent forces that might rise up.

Question 5

5. Observations on the DPRK Case Study

As described in this case study, WMD-E operations in the wake of a collapse of the DPRK.

1.What are the assumptions driving results?

– What does Your results suggest?

Answer

The WMD-E requirement is a nontraditional mission that creates a need for forces in addition to those required for joint operations, the force requirements of which might already be quite large.

The key assumptions driving results are the following:

– • the number and sizes of the WMD sites that are to be searched, the time needed to clear each site, and the priority and urgency of clearing them

– • the degree to which non-U.S. forces could or would be relied upon to service nuclear and nonnuclear sites

– • the ratio of support to mission troops

– • the degree of hostility in the operational environment, as well as the military threats WMD-E forces may face.

Our results suggest that even in cases where relatively favorable assumptions are made, the estimated U.S. forces required can still be quite substantial:

For example, in our DPRK base case, our estimate for the Uncertain environment – a relatively favorable environment for conducting WMD-E operations — required an estimated 73,000 troops,

while a more hostile operating environment or more expansive

missions required significantly more troops.

Actual WMD-E operations are likely to be far more challenging.

You can read the full version