Figure 1.1

Question 3

3. Parametric Analyses of WMD-E Force Requirements

We estimated WMD-E forces under different scenario assumptions that varied the following parameters:

1 • the number and sizes of WMD sites for WMD-E operations

2• force requirements dictated by the operational environment

3• the ratio of supporting forces to mission forces.

Answer

1.The number and sizes of WMD sites for WMD-E operations.

For WMD- E operations, we assess that the nuclear sites associated with fuelenriching and processing would be the next priorities, along with nuclear weapon manufacturing, testing, and storage sites. For our base case, we selected 12 battalion TFs as the minimum force that a commander should be allocated to seize, secure, search, and eliminate the priority nuclear sites. We note that 12 WMD-E TFs is a planning factor only.

For example, if intelligence suggests that the highest-priority nuclear activities should be conducted at nine sites, as shown in Table 1.1,

Table 1.1

then a minimum of ten battalion-sized TFs should be assigned to these nine sites. In the course of an operation, the U.S. commander might use these 12 WMD-E TFs

differently. For example, recall that in Figure 4.1 four of the priority nuclear sites and two of

the priority missile sites were located approximately 50 km from the Chinese border.

2. Operational environment and force requirements.

– WMD-E (Uncertain): This environment features a low threat level – consistent with the collapse of the DPRK regime and complete disintegration of the military. This might occur if a power struggle within the Kim regime resulted in open fighting that pushes an already dangerously unstable economy and society into chaos and collapse.

This environment features a greater threat level – consistent with the collapse of the DPRK regime and the higher echelons of its military. As in the Uncertain case above, this environment might arise from a violent conflict within the DPRK’s leadership.

– WMD-E (Hostile):the basis of the Hostile environment is that U.S. entry into North Korea would be met with hostility by former regime and military members and perhaps many in the general public. In the internal collapse case, entering North Korea might be predicated on relieving a massive humanitarian catastrophe and controlling refugee flows – with securing WMD being necessary to prevent their transfer.

– WMD-E (Hostile/High Threat): This environment features the collapse of the DPRK regime but with the military remaining intact to a large extent. This environment might result from an internal regime struggle and collapse as before. But, in this case, the military manages to hold itself together.

We used these four environment descriptions to calculate the forces required for the missions shown in Table 1.2.

In each case, we assessed that a battalion-sized WMD-E TF was the minimum size needed to provide sufficient organic security at each site and that – at a minimum—12 such TFs would be provided (ten for priority nuclear sites, with two in reserve for pop-up targets).

3. Ratio of supporting forces to mission forces.

For operations in the DPRK, such support would most likely be provided by military units:

– 1.5:1: This represents the lower-end bound of OIF and OEF support for Army operations.