The BRICS is a wonderful creature. It was a fantasy at first. A scientific term minted. In reality there was no such structure. Now it not only exists but also develops swiftly. It accumulates negotiating formats. It starts to have a mounting influence on world processes.
A token of further strengthening of the BRICS is that it gives a lot to its members. In the respect of influence, coordination of positions and approaches, and resolution of contradictions, among them very acute and old impediments of the past. It would be obviously premature to bury the BRICS. It has just begun to show its value.
Does Russia Belong to Predators?
All animals on our planet – the international community – may be divided into three groups. The first group unites those who eat the others. They are well known. The second group is those who are eaten. Libya was one of the latest victims. Some others will be next. Finally, the third group is herbivores, which are too big to serve as a lunch or a dinner to predators. Even in a band. Most likely, Russia belongs to that group. I would recommend no one to give up on Russia.
True, a substantial part of the unpleasant criticism it hears is quite founded. It is about the incomplete reforms, flaws in the democratic system, low efficiency of governing bodies and corruption. But only a part. Too much critique is sponsored. The sponsors neglect an objective analysis of the misfortunes, which fall to our lot, and the achieved, although modest, results.
Russia is a huge country. Very rich. In the geographic sense. And from the point of view of mineral resources. It has a colossal potential. Natural. Human. Scientific and technological.
Alas, de-industrialization and degradation to lumpens in the country are fait accompli. But we must not forget that Russia retains the leading positions in a number of promising areas. Such as space exploration, atomic energy or production of certain types of armaments.
Remarkably, many expensive components of Boeings are made in Russia. This is also the location of some of its design bureaus. Software developed in Russia is used by the largest banks of the world and so on.
Besides, Russia has turned into the largest market consuming commodities from EU member countries. From foodstuffs to the most expensive drugs. Suffice it to say that Russia is the biggest market for German automobile makers after Germany.
It looks like the county has no coherent and officially approved concept of economic development. Strategy 2020 can be called such by a long stretch. Still there are strategic guidelines in certain areas. Let us take the energy sector for an example, bearing in mind the significance trade in energy resources has for Russia-EU relations.
The era of extremely cheap crude is over. USA transformation into its biggest producer doesn’t change anything. Future price wars will not last more than one or two years. Crude reserves are limited. Production costs go up. Crude makes too big a contribution to climate change. It will have to be replaced. In the future with renewable resources. In the next few years – during the transitional period – with natural and, to some extent, with shale gas.
Natural gas will gradually become exchange liquidity. Everyone will need it. Large trucks will be using gas. That is an environmentally friendly fuel. If the forecast comes true, Russian producers will find themselves in a highly advantageous position: Russia has a third of world natural gas reserves.
Russian companies intend to use the growing demand in full. They are diversifying means of delivery. They are creating new transit corridors. They are entering new markets. First of all, Southeast Asia. By 2025–2030 the markets will have a totally different configuration.