Ответственный редактор:
Доктор физико-математических наук, профессор Д.И. Свириденко
Рецензенты:
Доктор технических наук С.И. Паринов
Кандидат экономических наук Ю.Н. Перевышин
© Анатолий Васильевич Кондратенко, 2021, Россия, Новосибирск, сентябрь 2021
Все права защищены. Никакая часть книги или вся книга не могут быть воспроизведены или переданы в любой форме или любыми способами без письменного разрешения автора.
Preface
This monograph is the third book in the series [Kondratenko, 2005, 2015, 2021] that develops probabilistic economic theory. When the first book was being prepared for publication sixteen years ago, I was asked when I thought this theory would gain wide acceptance from economists. My answer was: «No sooner than twenty years from now». To simply offer an alternative economic theory was not enough; I needed to show how it was better, and to prove that it is correct and capable of making reliable forecasts of economic development.
This monograph demonstrates the theory’s validity, and precisely the way in which it is better than other theories. Its effectiveness is shown when applied to important, organized markets such as stock exchanges. Based on the obtained results, a method is proposed for forecasting economic dynamics. Below, I will explain why stock exchanges were chosen as the objects of research.
It is well known that the division of labor by the various producers of goods improved the well-being of humankind during the early stages of civilization. This led to the subsequent formation and development of capitalism across the world. Initially, this process was dominated by ordinary markets, which facilitated and thereby accelerated the process of goods and services exchange between people. Eventually, this evolved to occur between organized markets, the more complex of which we have today such as the commodity, financial, and currency markets, amongst others. Together, their existence forms the exchange economy.
Currently, this exchange economy has, and effectively uses, all the most modern means of e-commerce, including artificial intelligence and algorithmic computer trading. Fueled by the widespread use of the Internet, the exchange economy is lightning fast, virtual and truly global. It is the high speed of information exchange and number of transactions that distinguishes the new virtual exchange economy from the traditional real economy. However, this feature of exchange trading can generate additional risks, both for the exchange economy and for the real economy. To date, these risks are only superficially understood in the economic academic community.
In today’s global economic world, the role of exchanges has become so significant that it is no exaggeration to say that the entire global economy is increasingly evolving towards an exchange economy. It would be more appropriately referred to as the transformation of the global economy into a financial economy, but in this monograph we will focus only on the role of exchanges in the economy. Therefore, we will use the term «exchange economy».
In today’s economy, the main purpose of exchanges is to determine prices for all tradable assets, including various types of money (currencies). Exchanges also facilitate trading and finance global economic activity. However, it is important to note that the state of affairs of all exchanges are good indicators of the entire global economic situation. The paradox of this status in the global exchange world is that there is clearly no adequate status in the world of theoretical finance. An adequate theory of organized financial markets still does not exist, which means there is no adequate theory representing the global real economy. This situation generates certain risks of the emergence and uncontrolled development of negative trends in the financial markets. This can lead to large-scale financial and, in turn, global economic crises, which we regularly observe in real life.